Oct 2, 2024
| Md Russell Talukder | The New Age
The interim government has announced six commissions for reforms in the constitution, the electoral system, the judiciary, the police, the Anti-corruption Commission and public administration. Considering the significance, urgency and challenges of Net Zero Vision 2050, the government should add environment commission to the cart as well. As efforts to harness the challenges of Net Zero Vision 2050 open up a ‘system crunch’ involving the stakeholders, including corporate giants, policy makers and consumers to adopt a holistic ‘de-carbonisation’ cycle in little more than a generation, it is never going to be easy to achieve the goal by 2050. Human carbon emissions need to converge towards net zero to stabilise the global climate, requiring not only a paradigm shift from fossil-based energy sources to renewable energy but also a complete change in the ways we produce, consume and move.
Geographically, Bangladesh is in a low-lying river delta with a long coastline and floodplains that stretch more than 80 per cent of the area. Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to catalytic impacts of climate change. From 1976 to 2019, Bangladesh had recorded an average increase in temperature of 50 degrees Celsius, causing people to suffer frequent floods, cyclones, draught and many other environmental disasters. Often, the changing climatic conditions lead to the displacement of local population, the flooding of houses, shelters and agricultural land, the spread of diseases and death and the salinity of soil and water.
The Sundarbans has already fallen prey to salinity, causing immense ecological impact on its habitats. Besides, cyclones also cause large-scale riverbank erosion, altering the morphology of a river and increasing river flow. By 2050, the country is likely to experience an increase in temperature of about 1.5°C, provided that the net zero challenges have been harnessed with veracity, agility and efficacy. And, between 2040 and 2059, the annual rainfall is also expected to increase by 74 millimetres. Failing to address the challenges of implementing net zero carbon emissions means a total disaster for the country and its people, especially in terms of loss of human lives, agricultural lands, economic growth and escalation of infectious diseases and mental health issues.
According to the report of the World Bank, ‘climate change in Bangladesh is not just about cyclones and floods. Changing and erratic weather pattern have also affected people’s physical and mental health.’ Statistical data provided by the International Displacement Monitoring Centre show that Bangladesh ranks as the seventh most climate-vulnerable country in the world with about four million Bangladeshis having been displaced in 2009–2014 because of different climatic hazards. The imminent climate hazards are too many and Bangladesh cannot afford to remain indifferent to Net Zero Vision 2050 as the cost of carelessness will be insurmountable in terms of human life. According to a recent survey by Black in 2013, if the country remains precariously exposed to flood, river bank erosion, storm surge and rise of sea level, it will cause as many as 16 to 26 million Bangladeshis to migrate from their place of origin between 2011 and 2050.
According to another study by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Bangladesh will lose 17 to 20 per cent of its land mass by 2050 to an increase in water level in the oceans. Such a scenario, as the World Bank reported, would lead to water scarcity and reduced crop yields as well as increased hunger and poverty. Another recent study estimates that 14.6 million people living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh are vulnerable to inundation because of frequent visits of cyclones and storm surges and by 2050 the number of climate refugees is estimated to increase as high as 18.5 million.
Achieving the 2050 net-zero target for Bangladesh requires not only a transition of energy sources from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources and strict implementation of ‘direct emissions reduction strategies’ but also a fundamental change in how people produce, consume and move. Cao, Alcayna, Quevedo and Jarvie identified a country’s weak governance, political unwillingness, poor institutional capacity, high contextual risks, shortcomings in accreditation requirements, the absence of programmatic modalities, unfit for purpose and burdensome access, inability to access climate finance landscape easily, absence of green economy and the absence of right technologies as major causes making the business difficult, fragmented and inhibitive.
Again, the United Nations highlighted that the implementation of the Pairs agreement requires a country to transform economically and socially on the basis of the best available science and technologies. Further to that, a country’s strategic preparedness, collaboration among the stakeholders and continuous surveillance by the regulatory body is crucial to ensure how and to what extent the businesses and industries will adapt emissions requirements, clean energy standards, carbon pricing and border. Only 3.5 per cent of power now comes from renewable sources in Bangladesh, making the criticism from climate activists sharp that the government lacks any comprehensive plans to achieve this goal. A number of policy initiatives suggest that Bangladesh is ramping up green energy although the dubious gap between political commitment and bureaucratic process, as highlighted by Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Dhaka-based Center for Policy Dialogue, remains a major challenge in determining the strategic framework of net zero movement in Bangladesh.
The duality is apparent as, on the one hand, the previous government cancelled plans to build 10 coal-fired power plants, signed the Paris agreement and launched ‘Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan’ and the nationally determined contribution and ‘Climate Promise — from Pledge to Impact’ projects to reduce carbon emissions by 6.73 per cent unconditionally and, on the other hand, it installed large-scale coal-fired power plants such as the Matarbari project, making its drives to achieve net zero more complicated.
Research and studies by Granholm 2022 suggest that the sustainment of a net-zero world from the heavy-emission-prone industry 4.0 unlocks a paradigm shift in the way we move, produce and consume, essentially building a decarbonised economy powered by ‘tangible clean energy source’. On top of everything, electricity must be rapidly decarbonised. A recent research of net zero claims that the reduction of carbon intensity of electricity to 60 per cent below its current level needs to be achieved by the next decade. Then the country has to ramp up the construction of wind and solar generation to reach 3.5 times the current capacity, increasing it on average at least 20GW of wind and 25GW of solar (including rooftop) per year, reinforce the transmission system to accommodate delivery of renewable generation from areas with high resource quality to distant load centres, increase storage capacity, install natural gas power plants to be built to replace retiring plants and initiate electricity wholesale market reforms to prepare for a changing mix of electric loads and resources and address emerging issues in operations and cost allocation.
Next, the transition from fossil fuel to renewable sources has to be accelerated by electricity, and where possible, with biofuels and electric fuels. Again, the country has to stop developing infrastructure relying of fossil fuels. Light, medium and heavy vehicles run by electricity should receive tax cuts so that their use increases by 40 per cent by 2030. For buildings, the use of fossil fuels needs to be replaced with natural gas with electricity. The use of electric pump and electric water heating equipment should be increased at least 60 per cent in residential and commercial buildings within five years. Finally, industries need to be decarbonised strategically, relying on electricity as their end use. Building carbon capture on large-scale industries replacing oil and natural gas, installing low-carbon feedstock and processing industrial products based on biomass, electric fuels, or carbon cap need to be given serious consideration.
To carry out all these tasks holistically, the government should launch a commission in addition to the six commissions. As it carries the will and able leadership, it can abridge the gap between the political commitment of the government and its bureaucracy, feeding into financial planning, leveraging financial tools, de-risking projects and integrating the stakeholders including the international donors and development partners. In fact, launching a separate commission is a dire need of time. The commission will identify the visions of net zero drive, focusing on the vulnerabilities and challenges of net zero and laying out the technological pathway and an affordable road map to net zero. It will assess the potentials of floating sovereignty-bond for net zero funding, socio-material interdependencies in carbon governance and tools for net zero pathway, strategic preparedness for net zero emissions, psychological changes in society and the demographic strata and pathway to net zero in healthcare, education, housing and apparel and garments industries.
The primary objective of the commission will be to build a decarbonised economy and adopt a holistic approach, keeping the emissions of pollutants as close to 1 per cent as possible by 2050. The commission will work on identifying the ways to harness the challenges of net zero for Bangladesh, especially with regard to increased clean energy deployment and transitions, enhanced local capacity for decision-making and implementation, laying out a de-carbonisation pathways reflecting local priorities, attracting investment in clean energy technologies and identifying actions that are replicated and inspire neighbouring countries and partner countries to serve as regional leaders.
The commission will regulate disbursement of funds in green economy, setting guidelines for the Bangladesh Bank and other financial and non-bank financial institutions. The responsibilities of the commission will also include both the identification of the vulnerabilities and their implication and the mitigation of their adversaries. As vulnerabilities born out of climate changes are not only limited to health insecurity, water salinity, soil salinity and environmental security, the commission will cover policy recommendations, resource mobilisation, technological integration and trajectories of the paradigm shift from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources. News Link: A call to harness net zero vision