Bangladesh has become Asia’s most active buyer of spot LNG cargoes – an unlikely new heavyweight in one of the world’s most volatile energy markets. Once largely self-sufficient in natural gas, the country now leans heavily on imported fuel to keep its factories running and its power sector alive. The shift is dramatic: gas still meets 43% of Bangladesh’s total energy needs, but domestic production is falling, reserves are dwindling, and the gap is being filled at a soaring cost. What began as a stopgap after shortages in 2017–18 has snowballed into structural dependence, pushing Bangladesh into the spotlight of the global LNG trade – and exposing the financial and systemic weaknesses that brought it there.

Domestic production peaked at 27 bcm/y in 2018, but will have slipped to 20 bcm/y by 2025. Consumption, meanwhile, was at 29 bcm/y in 2025 and is forecast to rise even higher. The shortfall is widening, and local producers – Chevron with almost 60% of national output, Petrobangla covering slightly less than 40%, and Tullow at 2% - cannot close the gap. Chevron has proposed new onshore developments that could add 14 bcm/y of incremental output, but such projects would take years. The immediate solution is LNG, and increasingly, spot-market LNG.

Bangladesh’s turn to LNG began in 2018, after severe gas shortages in 2017–18 disrupted power generation and industry. Qatar was first to step in with the inaugural cargo, opening the door to a broader import program. From there, purchases quickly widened beyond Doha: according to Kpler data, by 2019, total LNG inflows reached 3.9 million tons LNG, rising to 5.7 million tons in 2024 as demand kept outpacing domestic production and additional sellers – most notably the U.S., Malaysia, and Indonesia – entered the mix. Qatar remains the anchor for the brunt of Bangladesh’s gas requirements via a 2.5 million t/y long-term deal, with two more contracts due from 2026.

However, other suppliers have sought to expand into the South Asian country - Oman’s OQ Trading signed a 1.2 million t/y contract in July that would make it the second-largest supplier during its term. Even so, those contracted volumes cover only part of the deficit. To bridge the rest, Bangladesh has leaned hard on the spot market: August 2025 imports hit a record 728 Kt, up 57% year-on-year from 413 Kt, and state-run RPGCL bought 35 spot cargoes in January–August versus 21 a year earlier. US LNG has seen a marked ramp-up in the process, with this year’s imports surpassing 2024 readings by mid-July and continuing to go strong ever since. All this has propelled Bangladesh into the top tier of Asian spot LNG demand, competing directly with China and India for cargoes.

Such a position brings visibility – but also systemic risk. Unlike its larger peers, Bangladesh lacks the financial depth to absorb spot price spikes. Gas accounts for approximately 43% of power generation, meaning any supply shock threatens the country’s electricity security. Gas is sold at heavily subsidized prices, far below global market levels, leaving national energy company Petrobangla with mounting deficits – $690 million projected by the end of 2025. The Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission has moved to rise gas tariffs: for instance, fertilizer producers are facing proposed increases of 150%. But the squeeze will pressure the backbone of Bangladesh’s economy: textiles, agriculture, and manufacturing that generate the bulk of their export earnings. Spot-market exposure magnifies the dilemma – every global price swing reverberates through domestic industry, jeopardizing competitiveness, stoking inflation, and putting the national grid at risk.

The fiscal stress has already forced Dhaka into extraordinary measures. In June, the government issued a sovereign and indemnity guarantee to the World Bank – an unprecedented step for commodity imports rather than development lending. The World Bank approved $350 million immediately and plans to mobilize another $2.1 billion in private capital over the next 7 years. These funds will keep LNG cargoes arriving and allow Petrobangla to meet obligations under long-term sales purchase agreements (SPAs). But they highlight the irony at the heart of Bangladesh’s new status: the country has become Asia’s most active spot LNG buyer not out of strength, but out of urgent necessity – and propping up its energy security only by means of financial lifelines.

Infrastructure is another significant constraint. Two floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) at Moheshkhali, each with 3.8 million tons annual capacity, are the only gateways for LNG into the country. Rising imports and maintenance demands make this system increasingly fragile. A planned onshore terminal at Matarbari – designed for 7.5 million t/y – has stalled since the interim Yunus government cancelled the tendering process for the LNG terminal in September 2024. That leaves Bangladesh exposed: without new regasification capacity, its prominence in the spot market risks becoming a liability, with cargoes arriving faster than the country can process them.

Foreign players sense opportunity. Russia’s Novatek has proposed a 7.5 million t/y gravity-based terminal on a 25-year build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) model. Accepting this would entrench Moscow’s role in Bangladesh’s energy sector but possibly complicate relations with Western partners. Yet for Dhaka, the choice is less geopolitical than practical: unless new terminals are built, Bangladesh cannot sustain its spot-market appetite.

Bangladesh’s rise as Asia’s leading spot LNG buyer is both a symbol and a warning. It reflects the country’s rush to keep its energy system running, but also exposes the flaws that forced it into this role: underinvestment in exploration, delayed infrastructure, and a tariff system that masks costs while bleeding public finances. By seizing a prominent place in Asia’s LNG spot trade, Bangladesh has drawn attention not only to its demand but to its fragility. Unless it rebalances with new domestic supply, credible long-term contracts, and sustainable pricing, the country risks remaining exactly what it is today: the buyer of last resort in a market it cannot control.

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