a provider of primary research and analysis on the trends driving the transition to a low-carbon economy, in a report, Bangladesh Power Sector at the Crossroads, that it published on October 2, sounds a warning that ongoing economic and energy crisis would deepen if the master plan is implemented as it is now. The report, which has based its analysis on data as of 2022, says that fossil fuels accounts for 97 per cent of Bangladesh’s current installed power generation capacity of 23.2 gigawatts. Bangladesh has plans to build 11.1GW of fresh gas-fired capacity by 2027, mostly on imported liquefied natural gas, and 6.5GW of fresh coal capacity by 2026, mostly on imported coal. An increased dependence of liquefied natural gas to supplement domestic gas supply could increase gas fuel price for power generation by 123 per cent to $8.3 an MMBtu, or one million British thermal units, from an estimated $3.7 an MMBtu in 2023. It says that a heavy reliance on fossil-fuelled thermal plants has reduced Bangladesh’s energy security while it has eroded the country’s foreign reserves and added to local pollution.

While a further expansion of fossil fuel-run thermal power would jeopardise Bangladesh’s energy security and affordability, the country’s plan to introduce technologies to use hydrogen and ammonia for power generation carries risks of emitting highly polluting substances into the atmosphere. The report says that the retrofitting of thermal power plants for hydrogen or ammonia would not be cheaper than renewable energy. The levelised cost of electricity for utility solar would be around $50 a megawatt-hour and onshore wind would be above $50 a megawatt-hour in 2050 while the cost would range between $200 and $250 a megawatt-hour for electricity production with hydrogen. The levelised cost of electricity for a 50 per cent hydrogen blending would be around $150 a megawatt-hour in 2050. The levelised cost of electricity for retrofitted combined-cycle gas turbine and coal-fired plants in 2050 would be about $100 a megawatt-hour and range between $200 a megawatt-hour and $250 a megawatt-hour. The combustion of fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia at high temperatures causes more emissions of nitrogen oxide, which has 273 times greater global warming potential than carbon dioxide on a 100-year timescale. The levelised cost of electricity from fresh solar plants in Bangladesh is, as the report says, estimated to decline by 63 per cent between now and 2030. The report says that solar sources would be the cheapest option because of a continued reduction in technology cost by 2025 while electricity from onshore wind paired with batteries would also become cheaper than fresh thermal plants by the mid-2030s and even if fossil fuel prices decline, renewable sources will still be more economical.

Over-dependence on fossil fuel has already left the economy in a tight spot. The government must revise its energy plans to save the economy and the environment

News Link: Govt must revise energy plans to save economy, environment