The country’s power supply outlook for the next summer remains bleak with energy experts suggesting that optimum use of coal power capacity should be the core of the power generation plan to tackle the situation.

They, however, pointed out many obstacles to achieving the target.

The biggest obstacle is the existing row over unpaid bills with the 1,496MW Adani power plant, the largest coal power plant that has reduced supply to about 400MW at certain hours in a day amidst speculations of diverting power supply to India, they said.

The installed coal power generation capacity is 5,683MW, representing 20 per cent of the overall installed power generation capacity of 27,840MW.

Authorities predicted the peak summer power demand to reach 17,500MW in 2025 with the energy experts estimating that the summer power demand would never fall below 14,000MW.

‘Gas could have been the better option, but directing more gas to power generation implies reducing its supply to industries,’ Bangladesh Working Group on Ecology and Development member secretary Hasan Mehedi told New Age on Sunday.

The generation cost of a unit of electricity from gas was Tk 6.31 in 2023-34, the second lowest power generation cost after hydro-power.

The low-cost power generation from gas is unsustainable because of depleting local gas reserves, which accounted for three-fourths of the gas used for power production in 2023-24.

Producing electricity from imported liquefied natural gas is far too expensive. In 2022-23, Petrobangla bought a unit of gas from state-owned oil companies for Tk 1.5 while the cost of buying local gas extracted by international companies stood at Tk 4.5. The import cost of a unit of LNG was Tk 62.

Bangladesh’s current gas demand is about 4,000mmcfd. The maximum supply, however, remains about 2,800mmcfd. With its current gas handling capacity, the supply could be increased by maximum 200mmcfd.

‘We will try to generate as much electricity as possible from gas next summer,’ said Khandaker Mokammel Hossain, in charge of power generation at the Bangladesh Power Development Board.

The board has asked for 1,200mmcfd gas supply for power generation in the summer.

On December 29, the gas supply to power plants stood at 877mmcfd. In the past summer, the maximum gas supply to the power plants was 950mmcfd.

For an increase of 100mmcfd of gas, power generation increases by 500MW.

An acute gas crisis is currently plaguing households and industries, affecting lives and business. In some areas, the gas supply dropped to near zero recently.

Bangladesh’s current installed gas-based power generation capacity is 11,997MW, 43 per cent of the overall installed power generation capacity.

In 2023-24, less than 45 per cent of the gas-based power generation capacity was used. The gas capacity use is believed to drop in 2024-25.

‘A plan for a combined use of gas and coal is needed to tackle the power demand in summer,’ said Shafiqul Alam, lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Bangladesh.

The plan must ensure a regular and timely release of funds for energy purchases, after carefully analysing the market prices to ensure the use of cheaper fuel, he said.

Without the Adani power plant, coal power generation capacity drops to about 4,100MW.

In 2023-24, Bangladesh used less than 36 per cent of its coal capacity, excluding the Adani power plant, which ran at 62 per cent capacity.

Bangladesh has seven coal power plants. A unit of power produced from the Adani power plant cost Tk 14.87 while the average cost of producing power from other coal power plants was Tk 12.74.

A major challenge in ensuring coal supply is that most coal power plants are run by importing the fuel on an ad-hoc basis.

The 1,320MW Payra power plant has a long-term coal supply agreement with a Chinese company. Such agreements are, however, absent in case of the 1,320MW Rampal and 1,224MW SS power plants.

The coal price on the international market is currently rather low. The price might increase any moment as happened over past several years, creating a surge in demand leading to a supply crisis.

‘A situation could develop when you have money but you fail to find a coal supplier,’ warned Hasan Mehedi.

The BPDB said that they were trying to clear bills to coal power plants ahead of the summer.

Energy experts saw no escape from using furnace oil-based power plants on a large scale in the next summer. They saw the prospect of using furnace oil to generate 2,500MW during daytime with the likelihood of the generation reaching 4,000MW in evening peak hours.

In 2023-24, the cost of generating a unit of power from furnace oil-based power plants was Tk 25.70.

‘The best option is to use all coal-based power plants, trying to maintain a base-load of at least 13,000MW,’ said energy expert Mohammad Tamim.

For four hours on sunny days, the energy expert said, solar power could supply up to 700MW.

If 10,000MW could be generated using gas and coal out of their combined generation capacity of 17,680MW, energy experts estimated, a minimum supply of 13,000MW could be possible with the rest of the supply coming from furnace oil and solar energy.

Finding solutions to all these crises depends on finding enough money to purchase fuels, the experts said. 

Bangladesh’s current foreign currency reserve stands at about $20b. After falling for about three years, the reserve remained static over the past several months.

People suffered frequent power cuts even in November. The power cuts were reminiscent of long hours of power outage in the past summer, especially in villages, where the poor remained without power for 10 hours or more.

The highest power supply in the past summer was 16,477MW.

Summer power cuts could bear serious consequences for it could affect the cultivation of boro, the country’s main staple crop.

‘We must admit power cuts will not go away. But we are trying to keep it at a tolerable level,’ said Mokammel Hossain.

News Link: Summer power supply looks bleak